Thorsten Heins: tablets will be dead in five years

The BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins has predicted that within five years, tablets will be obsolete.  Speaking to Bloomberg, Mr Heins remarked: ''I don't think there'll be a reason to have a tablet anymore.  Maybe a big screen in your workplace, but not a tablet as such.  Tablets themselves are not a good business model.''  That is quite a claim to make.  But is there any truth to it?  Let's take a look at the current tablet market.

Apple Ipad sales surged 65% year on year according to last quarter's results: 19.4 million were sold in the second quarter of this year compared to 11.8 million in the same quarter last year.  The BlackBerry Playbook has sold an estimated 2.4 million in two years, compared to nearly 112 million shipments for the Ipad, with revenues of over $58 billion.  Perhaps Heins is projecting BlackBerry's failure in the tablet market onto every other manufacturer in the sector.  Global tablet shipments reached just under 41 million in the first quarter of 2013.  According to the IDC, global tablet sales in 2012 grew by 78% year on year, and on current forecasts, will exceed desktop shipments in 2013 and portable PC shipments in 2014.

Global tablet sales forecasts

As this graph shows, analysts do not expect a slowdown in the growth of tablets.  Mobile computing in general is entering a boom period.  Smartphone activations have exceeded feature phone activations for the first time.

There are several reasons however to take a closer look at Mr Heins's statement.  Smartphones are increasing in size: the five inch form factor appears to be the current sweet spot.  Samsung has announced the Mega series of smartphones; two models sizes of 5.8 inches and 6.3 inches respectively.  If there is a positive reaction to these form factors, and sales for the Galaxy Note series suggests there will be, smartphone sizes may increase further, at which point the 7 inch tablet may become redundant.  After all, tablets are essentially large smartphones without calling capabilities.  So perhaps Heins's prediction may well be true with regards to the smaller tablets.

10 inch tablets are another matter.  PC sales are declining (over 13% year on year) as more and more of us switch to mobile computing.  Mobile operating systems cannot offer us the strength and variety of Windows, Mac OS or Linux, but who's to say they won't in future.  High end smartphones now ship with processors with clock speeds of almost 2 GHz.  Most ship with 2GB of RAM as standard.  The graphical capabilities of most smartphones are superb: playing Grand Theft Auto 3 and Vice City on my Galaxy Note 10.1 was truly an awe inspiring experience.  Nvidia's mobile Kepler graphics processor is capable of running Battlefield 3, a game a lot of current desktops struggle to handle!


Personally, I don't believe the tablet market will be dead within five years.  Or in the foreseeable future.  As they increase in processing and graphical power, the speed of adoption will only increase.  The success of the Chrome OS just proves that for most people, a full blown operating system is not necessary anymore.  Google Docs provides an office suite capable of performing most office functions.  Cloud gaming services like OnLive negate the necessity of needing ridiculous specifications and discrete graphics chips to run the latest games.

Perhaps BlackBerry will be dead within five years.  Just three years ago it was the major player in the smartphone market.  It failed to anticipate the success of IoS and Android.  Is there any reason to take seriously their prognostications now?

Government investment in the arts

We are constantly told that government investment in the arts is a good thing for the return on investment is rather large.  Here is Will Hutton in the Observer:

The Treasury archives are groaning with economic impact studies commissioned by arts bodies over the decades, all of which show that a pound invested in museums, theatre, film or music will deliver many more pounds of benefits back.

If this is true, then why do we need state investment in the arts at all?  If they are such a good, sound investment, why are private companies not queuing up outside the Globe Theatre or the Royal Opera House to sponsor the arts?

PC Specialist Laptop Review

Enigma IV Review

A week ago, I received my custom built laptop from the fine people at PC Specialist.  It was a long and arduous wait (only 11 days) but when you look forward to something, the minutes turn into hours and the hours into days.  In fact, when I emailed about the time it was taking to be built (nearly a week compared to the 1-3 days stated on the website), they emailed me back, saying it was going straight to testing and I received the laptop within two days.  That is Amazon style customer service there folks.

I have no need for branded goods.  The premium 'tax' you pay is often not worth the hit on your wallet.  All you need for a good laptop is a fast processor, a decent amount of RAM and a good graphics card, integrated or discrete.  Apple MacBooks, or Chromebook Pixels are all fine and dandy, but you can much the same specifications if you just custom build the laptop.  Of course, I don't have access to the Retina Display of the Macbook Pro, nor do I have the wonderful touch screen or the resolution of the pixel, but the internals are the same if not slightly better (aside from the SSD drive of course).

Anyway, let's analyse the specifications.

I opted for a standard H.D resolution of 1366x768.  It is fine for me.  Everything in life is a trade off, and if having slightly fewer pixels on the screen means a slightly increased battery life, then it is a deal worth making.  I have no need for a full H.D screen as I have no need for photo-editing nor video-editing.  The screen quality is indeed good, if a little dull.  For some reason, in reviews like this, viewing angles are classed as important.  It's the same with smartphones and tablets.  I don't know anyone who views their device at any angle other than straight ahead.  So when I say viewing angles on the Enigma IV aren't spectacular, I don't care!  Watching YouTube videos is a dream as they load almost instantly, even at 1080p resolution.  And with YouTube partners' production getting more and more professional, having a good video experience is essential to anyone laptop.  You don't want to be waiting for 10 minutes for a 5 minute video to buffer!

My budget was reasonable.  I don't have the luxury of splurging over £1000 on a laptop, so I opted for a traditional hard-drive at 7200rpm rather than an SSD drive, most of which are still very expensive.  It has 4 GB of DDR ram, a core Intel I5 3230m processor clocked at 2.6 GHz with a turbo speed of 3.2 GHz   And most importantly, it has an Nvidia Geforce GT 650m graphics card with 2 GB of video ram.  Being able to play Call of Duty, Deus Ex and GTA IV at maximum settings is a beautiful thing.  Not a single glitch.  They run butter smooth with consistently high frame rates.  The Enigma IV can handle H.D video without a problem.  I haven't run any official benchmark tests, but my own experiences are sufficient.  Even with multiple programmes open and running, I haven't experienced any slowdown.  I expect this to change as I add more demanding games like Far Cry 3 and Dead Island, but as far as things are going now, it runs beautifully.

The sound is great too.  It is thick, vibrant and full of bass.  When you listen to as much music as I do (as a part time hobby I try to transcribe guitar parts, so sound is very important to me) sound is very important.  I have no complaints here.  I played the new Lynyrd Skynyrd album as an audible benchmark and it sounds impressive.  The dry as a bone Telecaster guitar tone sounds sumptuous here.  The bass is loud, full, thick and powerful.

In terms of connectivity, it has 2 3.0 USB ports and 1 2.0 USB port.  I have connected a mouse for my gaming needs and can connect any peripheral I need, such as a cooling stand, printer, even an external monitor.  It has an HDMI port alongside a VGA port, so when I want to stream a movie on Netflix but watch it on a widescreen TV, I can.  The Enigma IV has wireless connectivity, with surprisingly good reach.  In my house, I am as far away from the wifi router as possible, yet, despite this, my internet speeds are fast, pages load seamlessly and without interruption, and my downloads occur without a hitch.

I cannot efficiently express how much I love the design.  It possesses a simple, clean look with a nice finish.  No logos, labels or any of the other bits of nonsense with which other O.E.M's like to pepper their equipment.  Even the spec stickers are optional!  The webcam is fine for Skype and video calling in general.  As long as you don't expect to shoot high quality portrait shots, you should be fine!

The Enigma IV is a great laptop.  No, it is a superb laptop.  And at the price I paid for it (just over £500 excluding VAT), I cannot complain.  It boots up in 10 seconds, and I can go from switching on the device to playing a graphically demanding game in 30 seconds.  That is a superb reflection on the work PC Specialist has done here.  I had some problems with my Windows 8 activation key as the letter B was sometimes confused with the number 8, and aside from the 85p a minute premium rate number, tech support was great. Within 30 minutes I was installing Libre Office, my Steam games, the Chrome browser and various other bits of software.  I don't like the Metro UI in Windows 8, but PC Specialist don't do operating systems.  If they did, I'd buy it!

Getting things started

It's the Guardian obviously, Britain's little read premier left wing news publication.  Apparently it used to be a serious paper, but the things it prints nowadays are fit for nobody's eyes.  Anyway, in today's paper, the General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady, extols the virtues of Clement Attlee, the Labour Prime Minister between 1945-1951.  History will remember only two of the 20th century's Prime Ministers as great: Mr Attlee and Mrs Thatcher.  The rest are pygmies in comparison.  Anyway...

The TUC's relations with Labour are not always easy, but we have a shared interest in creating a fairer, more equal Britain that recognises the tough times austerity has created for millions of ordinary families.

Once upon a time maybe, when the Labour Party was more Methodist than Marxist, but those days are long behind us.  The TUC hasn't cared about creating a fairer Britain for a long time, whatever fairer means.  It's all politics.  Positioning.  Trying to undermine a democratically elected government reducing a budget deficit caused by fattening the wallets of the TUC.

If our analysis of the 2008 crash recognises that a bubble delivering fake prosperity burst, then we know that money will be tight, even after reversing self-defeating austerity. But that is not an argument for ministers to be timid. On the contrary, they will need to be more radical in delivering structural change and shaking up the economy, redefining the role of state and markets. For example, rather than being prepared in perpetuity to use tax credits to subsidise insecure and low-paid work, we need action to create good, sustainable jobs, spread the living wage and create modern wages councils to set fair rates in industries that can easily afford to better the minimum wage.

Yep, to create good, sustainable jobs, you need to increase the minimum wage even more.  Never mind that 1 million youngsters are struggling to find good, sustainable work because a minimum wage prices inexperienced, unskilled labour out of the market.  Why do you think not even the TUC advocates equalising the minimum wage across all age bands?  It would be employment suicide.  If you want to avoid the rigmarole caused by tax credits then abolish them.  Just take those on minimum wage out of taxation altogether.  It is a scandal that they pay it anyway.  She makes a fair point on rates though: how she squares it with her version of perpetually increased state spending is a question for another day.

 A broken banking system needs rebuilding – with regional banks and both a green and a state investment bank. Active industrial policy with a strong regional dimension already has wide support among employers and unions. The need to invest in a major programme of social and affordable housing can kickstart growth and meet huge social need. Public ownership of railways will be cheaper than the huge corporate welfare bill paid to private operators at the moment.

What is this fetish with regional banks?  How would more regional banks have prevented the crash.  I don't have British figures but in the US, since 2008, 465 banks have been closed.  Creative destruction, purging bad money out of the system.  A problem that has been brewing since Jimmy Carter's Community & Reinvestment Act will not be solved in 4 years, but the banking system is getting cleaner.  To argue for the public ownership of rails after criticising a system of banking that is partially state owned is akin to arguing against gun control by shooting your opponents.  National Rail is a nationalised industry in all but name anyway.

The rest of the article continues in much the same vein.  Lots of guff about how unions can play a stronger role in the modern economy.  That they can, but with the public sector set to shrink even further, and a paucity of representation in the private sector, I suspect the siren voices of the Union movement will get quieter as the years progress.